GOP PAC/Trafalgar Group Poll: Biden 47.5, Trump 46.4
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by just 1 point in Pennsylvania, according to polling commissioned by this GOP super PAC.
Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, commissioned an October poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania conducted by the Trafalgar Group that shows 47.5% that say they are going to vote for Biden, while 46.4% say that they are going to vote for Trump. 2.9% polled said they are going to vote for Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen, 1.8% said they will be voting for someone other than the three options provided, and 1.5% said they are undecided.
According to analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Trafalgar Group favors Republicans by an average of 0.9% and has an overall C- grade. The Hill has previously reported that the group “weights its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or the so-called shy Trump voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they support the president.”
The race has continued to tighten in the Keystone State in recent months, according to polling commissioned by the GOP super PAC. In September, Biden led Trump by just over 2 points, 48.1-to-45.9, in the state. In July, their polling showed the former VP leading the president by just over 5 points, 49.7-to-44.3, in the state. In the June PA poll, Biden led Trump by 11 points, 53.5-to-41.8, while the president was ahead of the former VP by about 5 points in the May PA poll, 50.2-to-45.5. Restoration PAC’s polling from April and March showed the two deadlocked. However, previous polling commissioned by the PAC was conducted by Glenn Hodas, while the October and September polling were conducted by the Trafalgar Group.
Polling released in October has consistently shown Biden leading in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster. This latest poll indicates the closest race in comparison to other recent polls.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. A CNBC/Change Research poll released last Tuesday shows Biden carrying a 4 point lead, 50-to-46, among likely voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll released last Sunday, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters in the state. A Morning Consult poll of likely voters in the state shows Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 52-to-44. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling released on Friday.
Biden’s largest lead in October polling comes from Quinnipiac University that shows the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. Biden’s slimmest lead among recent public polling was from the Trafalgar Group that shows Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.4%-to-45.1%, among likely voters in the state.
Another GOP friendly poll showed Biden leading in the state as well, but by a smaller margin. An Insider Advantage phone poll of likely voters commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, in the state shows Biden leading Trump by just over 3 points, 45.8%-to-42.6%.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4.4 points in Pennsylvania.
This poll surveyed 1,041 likely voters, collected data between Oct. 13-15, has a +/-2.96% margin of error.
The full data can be found here.