Quinnipiac Poll: Biden 51, Trump 43
Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a several point advantage over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest Quinnipiac University poll.
Biden leads Trump by 8 points, 51%-to-43%, among likely voters in the Keystone State, while 5% remain undecided. This is a slight improvement for the president in comparison to Quinnipiac’s last poll released on Oct. 7, after the first presidential debate and Trump’s positive COVID-19 diagnosis, that showed Biden with a 13 point lead over Trump, 54%-to-41%. These results are similar to the Quinnipiac poll released in early-September that showed Biden with an 8 point lead over Trump, 52%-to-44%.
According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Quinnipiac University favors Democrats by an average of 0.2% and has an overall B+ grade.
— Quinnipiac University Poll (@QuinnipiacPoll) October 21, 2020
A majority of Pennsylvania likely voters still view Biden favorably, while a majority of voters in the state view Trump unfavorably.
50% have a favorable opinion of Biden, while 44% view him unfavorably. 43% have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 54% view him unfavorably. Biden’s favorability rating went down a bit in comparison to the previous Quinnipiac poll, while Trump’s net favorability rating went up a few points. In the early-October polling, 51% had a favorable opinion of Biden, while 42% viewed him unfavorably; 41% had a favorable opinion of Trump in that previous poll, while 55% view him unfavorably.
44% approve of Trump’s job performance as president, while 53% said they disapprove. This is a slight improvement for the president in comparison to the previous poll that showed 41% approved of Trump’s job performance as president, while 56% said that they disapproved.
A majority of likely voters, 56%, disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, while 42% approve of his handling of the matter.
Polling released in October has consistently shown Biden leading in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster. This latest poll show’s Biden’s lead is a few points larger than the Real Clear Politics average.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. A CNBC/Change Research poll released last Tuesday shows Biden carrying a 4 point lead, 50-to-46, among likely voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll released last Sunday, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. A Morning Consult poll of likely voters in the state shows Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 52-to-44. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling released on Friday. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 49-to-45, among likely voters in the state. A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state.
Biden’s largest lead in October public polling comes from the previous Quinnipiac University poll that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. Biden’s slimmest lead among recent public polling was from the Trafalgar Group that shows Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.4%-to-45.1%, among likely voters in the state.
Two GOP friendly polls released since last week showed Biden leading in the state as well, but by a smaller margin.
An Insider Advantage phone poll of likely voters commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, in the state shows Biden leading Trump by just over 3 points, 45.8%-to-42.6%. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4.2 points in Pennsylvania.
Qunnipiac surveyed 1,241 Pennsylvania likely voters from Oct. 16-19. The poll has a margin of error of +/-2.8%.
The full Pennsylvania crosstabs for the Quinnipiac University poll can be found here.