CNBC/Change Research Poll: Biden 49, Trump 47
Former Vice President Joe Biden only holds a slight edge over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll.
The latest CNBC/Change Research poll of likely voters released on Tuesday shows Biden leading Trump by 2 points, 49%-to-47%, in the state. Pennsylvania is home to the closest race in the six battleground states polled. Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin (52-to-44), Michigan (51-to-44), Arizona (51-to-45), Florida (50-to-45), and North Carolina (50-to-47).
In the previous CNBC/Change research poll released on Oct. 6, Biden held a 4 point lead, 50%-to-46%, over Trump in the Keystone State.
Biden’s largest lead in the state according to this pollster over the past few months was in mid-July when it showed the former VP leading the president by 8 points, 50-to-42.
According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Change Research favors Democrats by an average of 1.1% and has an overall C- grade.
Polling released in October has consistently shown Biden leading in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster. This latest poll shows the closest race in comparison to other public polls released this month.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. A Morning Consult poll of likely voters in the state shows Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 52-to-44. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling released on Friday. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 49-to-45, among likely voters in the state. A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state. A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 21, showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 51%-to-43%.
Biden’s largest lead in October public polling comes from a Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 7 that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. Prior to this poll, Biden’s slimmest lead among recent public polling was from the Trafalgar Group that showed Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.4%-to-45.1%, among likely voters in the state.
Two GOP friendly polls released since last week showed Biden leading in the state as well, but by a smaller margin.
An Insider Advantage phone poll of likely voters commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, in the state shows Biden leading Trump by just over 3 points, 45.8%-to-42.6%. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4.8 points in Pennsylvania.
FiveThirtyEight reports that 574 likely voters were polled in Pennsylvania from Oct. 16-19. The overall battleground polling survey has a margin of error of ±1.8%. The Pennsylvania specific polling data was not stated in the article.
The battleground polling can be found here.