Analysis: A Complete Breakdown of PA’s Presidential Results (Maps)

pa-map-2

Key: Navy – 65%+ Clinton, Blue 60-64.9%, Royal Blue 55%-59.9%, Dodger Blue 50%-54.9%, Light Sky Blue <50%. Light Salmon <50% Trump, Coral 50%-54.9%, Orange Red 55%-59.9%, Red 60%-64.9%, Maroon 65%+. Ties are yellow. Results are broken down by precinct. A special thanks to the local county election boards and to Decision Desk HQ for help with the Carbon and Delaware County results.

On November 8th, Donald Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since 1988, emerging victorious by just 44,292 votes.

To put that in perspective, the last time the GOP won PA: the Berlin Wall was still up, Jimmy Stewart was still alive and I wasn’t even born yet.

How did the Keystone State shift from blue to red after so long? That’s what this piece aims to find out.

Regional Breakdown:

There’s an oft-cited apocryphal James Carville quote that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle. Like many myths, this one takes a kernel of truth and stretches it too thin.

I spent much of 2016 arguing that PA was defined more by an Appalachia/Acela divide. While I feel my characterization is closer to the truth, the map proves that the commonwealth isn’t so simple.

Southeast

sepa-map

One perception that remains accurate, however, is that the Democrats’ greatest strength lies in the Southeastern portion of the state.

Going into Election Day, Dems were depending on a 450,000+ margin out of Philadelphia for Clinton. She ended up with a cushion of 475,277 votes.

Meanwhile, her advantage in the collar counties (+188,353) was so far ahead of President Obama’s in 2012 (+123,327) that her cumulative SEPA margin was larger than his.

Any expert worth their salt would’ve said that such a result would guarantee a Clinton statewide victory. Even in this bluest area of the state, though, we can see some signs as to why that wasn’t the case.

If you followed our reports on voter registration trends this year you noticed that Chester County is moving towards Democrats while Bucks is moving away. So while Clinton winning Chester (the only Romney county she was able to flip) was impressive, there’s a lesson in the fact that her margin in Bucks was a razor-thin 2,699.

While Hillary performed well in the the middle section of Bucks, which is the wealthiest and highest educated portion, she fell way behind in the traditionally Democratic, working-class areas of lower Bucks.

This was actually a theme of the Clinton vs. Trump contrast, as you’ll see in the next section.

Northeast

scranton-wilkes-barre

The line from Scranton through Wilkes-Barre used to be as reliably blue as the Acela corridor. Not anymore.

In 2012, Barack Obama won Lackawanna County (Scranton) by 26,753 votes. Hillary Clinton finished with a 3,599 margin. In Luzerne County (Wilkes-Barre), Obama was victorious by 5,982 votes, whereas Clinton lost by 26,237.

Add up the shifts. In a contest decided by 44,292 votes this corridor made all the difference.

Digging deeper, though, you find an amazing occurrence. At a time when straight-ticket voting is at an all-time high, there was a massive divergence in these two counties among the Democratic candidates.

In Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties, Senate nominee Katie McGinty finished 2.68% and 4.03% ahead of Clinton. As for the other Democratic candidates?

Attorney General nominee Josh Shapiro: 10.84% and 10.82%

Incumbent Auditor General Eugene DePasquale: 11.06% and 9.53%

State Treasurer nominee Joe Torsella: 10.25% and 10.99%

My mistake, and apparently the Clinton campaign’s as well, was considering the Northeast as an extension of the Acela corridor. In reality, Scranton and Wilkes-Barre are located in Appalachia.

appalachia-map

The Northeast, though, was far from the only spot where Clinton underperformed.

Erie

erie-map

The Northwestern haven for Democrats hasn’t gone red since Ronald Reagan nearly swept Walter Mondale in 1984. Yet Donald Trump was able to turn the lakeside county.

As you can see, Clinton just couldn’t come through in the suburbs around the city.

Lehigh Valley

lehigh-valley-map

Berks, Lehigh and Northampton Counties should’ve been a strength for Clinton as this area is home to cities like Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton. Once again, however, the suburbs were her undoing.

As a result, the Democratic nominee lost Northampton for the first time since 1988. Additionally, while Pres. Obama lost Berks by just over a point four years ago, Hillary fell behind Trump by ten. Furthermore, John Kerry performed better than Clinton did in Lehigh.

South Central

south-central-map

Too often those in the western and eastern parts of the commonwealth forget just how populous counties like Lancaster and York are. Besides the cities themselves, though, they were deep red.

One bright spot for Democrats is that the capital city of Harrisburg remains a blue haven in the center of the state.

Allegheny/Southwest

allegheny-map

Much as Clinton performed well in Philadelphia, she also did ran up the score in Allegheny County. In fact, her +108,137 vote margin was the best for a Democrat since 1992.

The rest of the Appalachian Southwest, though, was a complete bloodbath.

sw-pa-map

Take the example of Jack Murtha’s beloved Johnstown. There’s hardly any blue left there. Furthermore, Democratic support in Cambria County has absolutely plummeted. In 2008 (despite Murtha’s worries) Obama actually narrowly carried the county. By 2016, however, Trump was winning Cambria by forty-seven points.

Analysis:

Polarization

“Why Aren’t I 50 Points Ahead?” – Hillary Clinton September 21, 2016

Citizens, pundits and even our 44th President frequently declare that the United States of America isn’t as divided as it seems. In actuality, this nation is likely more polarized than anyone wants to admit.

For instance, the popular vote has been recorded for every presidential contest since 1824. In those 49 elections, the most any one candidate has received nationwide is the 61.1% of the vote Lyndon Johnson secured against Barry Goldwater in 1964.

In fact, since 1976 the margin in ten of the eleven presidential elections were decided by single-digits (the exception being the Reagan landslide in 1984). In just my lifetime, the best performance was Barack Obama’s 52.9% in 2008.

With an environment where the most a candidate can receive is around 53%, we live in a reality that allows any person nominated by the Democratic or Republican Party a legitimate shot at victory. 

Campaigning

“Donald Trump has less than zero percent chance of winning Pennsylvania” – David Plouffe August 28, 2016

The two major party nominees may have approached Pennsylvania as a swing state the whole way, but their methods couldn’t have been more different.

Clinton relied on data, TV ads and rallies in Philadelphia. Trump, on the other hand, crisscrossed the state without much of a synchronized plan.

The Democratic National Convention was of course a major opportunity for the party. While Clinton didn’t campaign in PA during the actual event, she embarked on a bus tour of the commonwealth the day after.

The nominee and her running mate held a rally in Philadelphia, and visited a factory in Hatfield, before making a stop in Harrisburg. They then toured a Johnstown manufacturing plant and finished with another Pittsburgh event. In retrospect, the Democratic ticket probably should’ve gone with a more extensive itinerary.

A few weeks later, Hillary and Vice President Joe Biden made a joint appearance in Scranton where they both have family roots.

In October, Clinton participated in a town hall with her daughter Chelsea and actress Elizabeth Banks. Even at the time, the staging seemed peculiar as the small room couldn’t hold much of an audience.

The event was also held in Delaware County, which like Montco, was solidly blue. So Clinton’s two SEPA visits were in deep blue Delaware and Montgomery instead of the more vulnerable Bucks and Chester.

Furthermore, after another Harrisburg stop later that same day Clinton never ventured outside of Pittsburgh or Philly again. Now of course, she finished her campaign in Philadelphia with a massive rally featuring President Obama and Bruce Springsteen. Nonetheless, the point remains.

Trump meanwhile was all over the place. He visited Scranton, Mechanicsburg, Hershey, Valley Forge, Gettysburg, Newtown, Johnstown, Manheim, Erie and Altoona among other places.

This was partly the result of a disparity in surrogates. The Clinton team could send President Obama, Michelle Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, Tim Kaine, Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders somewhere. Trump pretty much only had himself, his family and Mike Pence.

That’s not to say the GOP nominee’s strategy was flawless. He puzzlingly made several stops in the heart of Philadelphia. The campaign’s choice of Chester County for Melania Trump’s first solo appearance was also unsuccessful.

Despite that, the imbalance in events speaks to a criticism President Obama subtly expressed after Election Day.   

“We have to compete everywhere. We have to show up everywhere,” he stated. “I won Iowa not because the demographics dictated that I would win Iowa. It was because I spent 87 days going to every small town and fair and fish fry and VFW Hall, and there were some counties where I might have lost, but maybe I lost by 20 points instead of 50 points. There’s some counties maybe I won, that people didn’t expect, because people had a chance to see you and listen to you and get a sense of who you stood for and who you were fighting for.”

The Clinton forces bet that fundraising was a more valuable use of the candidate’s time. The results suggest they were mistaken.

Comey Letter

“James Comey cost her the election” – Bill Clinton December 19, 2016

There are two kinds of people: those who believe the release of the Comey letter on October 28th cost Clinton the election and those who think that’s just an excuse for her own failures.

Looking past that dynamic, there is a solid argument that Comey’s action fatally wounded Clinton’s candidacy. In mid-October, Geoffrey Skelley of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball pointed out that whichever candidate happened to be under the spotlight at any given moment always suffered.

In July, Comey’s press conference torpedoed Hillary’s numbers until “The Donald” caused a fracas with his remarks against the Khan family. Clinton’s bout of pneumonia in September brought Trump back, only for his 2005 Access Hollywood audio to emerge and cause his poll numbers to nosedive.

All the Clinton team had to do was wait out the twenty days from the last debate until November 8th without a negative story breaking. They weren’t given that luxury.   

In a race with unpopular nominees, late deciders shouldn’t have broken towards any particular candidate. Nonetheless, Trump ran the table with those who said they made up their minds in the final week.

cbs-exit-poll

Working Class Voters

“You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it’s not surprising, then, they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.” – Barack Obama April 6, 2008

It’s quite amazing to look back at this quote (widely considered a gaffe) and realize it may very well have served as a blueprint for Donald Trump’s rust-belt strategy.

Much discussion has followed about how Democrats abandoned the white working class in the Obama Era, yet the President was able to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin twice.

So just why were there so many voters who switched from Barack Obama to Donald Trump?

Hillary Clinton offered her own explanation before the fact.

“I am not a natural politician, in case you haven’t noticed, like my husband or President Obama,” she admitted back in May.

As a result, Clinton was not her own best messager. She found campaigning to be a draining experience whereas for Trump it was a rejuvenating one.

Despite the GOP nominee’s allusions to the contrary, Clinton held less rallies not because of any issues with her stamina. Rather she preferred the debates over rallies.

For example, it’s become fashionable to say that the Clinton campaign ignored working-class whites yet that’s not true. During the debates she hammered Trump for declaring bankruptcy, stiffing contractors and buying Chinese steel for his buildings.

The problem is that she did not reinforce this message in her TV ads. Her most well-known commercials just repeated the worst things Trump had said during the course of the campaign, statements people had already seen plenty of times.

Where were the spots featuring men and women whose businesses were destroyed by Trump’s refusal to pay them? Or the employees from his bankrupt casinos? Or the people whose lives were ruined by Trump University?

Four years ago, Barack Obama and his allies ran some incredibly effective ads against Mitt Romney that revealed him to be the enemy of “the working man”. In 2016, Clinton neglected to make this case against Trump. Given that national exit polls showed voters concerned about the economy preferred her, this was a major missed opportunity.

economy-exit-poll

Trump’s Celebrity

“The show is ‘Trump’ and it is sold-out performances everywhere. I’ve had fun doing it and will continue to have fun, and I think most people enjoy it.” – Donald Trump 1990 Playboy Interview

The most underappreciated feature of the 2016 presidential campaign by far was the fact that Donald Trump was the first celebrity candidate.

Sure Ronald Reagan had been a movie star but he made a deliberate mid-career switch to politics. He also served as Governor of California for eight years and waged a long primary campaign for the office in 1976.

Donald Trump is the first person to ever win the presidency without some experience in government or the military. Trump didn’t get there by being a wealthy businessman either (Ross Perot can testify to this) as he only spent about $66 million on his campaign. Rather Donald Trump is the product of a time when the famous are famous for being…famous.

Putting his name in gold on all his buildings, consistently releasing ghost-written books, feeding stories to the tabloids, hosting his own reality show and eventually his Twitter account were all means to this end.

As Jon Stewart always pointed out, the media is not biased towards an ideological goal but rather sensationalism. It’s a contest for attention and that’s a battle Donald Trump knew how to win.

So while Clinton and her campaign made plenty of mistakes, it’s difficult to judge them because of the unprecedented situation. After all, how do you settle on a plan when one tweet can upend the news cycle? Her team ultimately decided there was no way this campaign was going to be about anything or anyone but Trump.

Motivation

“Decisions are made by those who show up.” – Jed Bartlet, The West Wing

In politics, in sports, and in life generally there’s a good rule of thumb: the winners tend to be the ones who want it just a little bit more.

Conservatives have criticized progressives for viewing the election through a racial lens. If the voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin who swung the result were inspired by prejudice, the question goes, then why did they vote for Barack Obama twice?

The answer is Donald Trump was the most blatantly nationalist candidate in modern times.

John McCain notably resisted efforts to make the 2008 campaign about race. Four years later, Mitt Romney tried to thread the needle but eventually decided against such a campaign as well (perhaps his experience as a religious minority guided him towards that decision).

Donald Trump, however, had no hesitations.

He reached out to conspiracy theorists and questioned whether the President was actually born in America, mainstreaming a racist myth. He continued to insinuate that the document was fake for years and even obliquely accused the President of murder to cover it up.

When it came time to announce his 2016 campaign, immigrants became his boogeymen until Muslims proved more effective after his poll numbers began to lag. He’d go on to portray his female opponent as physically unfit for the office. Finally, he ended his campaign with a TV ad many felt featured anti-Semitic undertones.  

In response, Clinton bet on demographics. The revolution just never came. Hillary did about as well among blacks as any white candidate has, yet it wasn’t enough. Her focus on women didn’t yield her a majority of white females. It’s even an open question whether Trump did better or worse among Latinos than Romney.

The only minority that backed Hillary Clinton by a larger margin than they supported Barack Obama in 2012 were Jews.

With no surge in the rainbow coalition and the Democrats hemorrhaging white men, the Clinton camp turned to white women.

They felt Republican women in Southeast PA and the Lehigh Valley could even out the loss of Democratic men in the Southwest and other areas. That effort came up just short.

On November 8th, only about 60% of the voting age population showed up to vote. Over 218,000 citizens voted for a third-party candidate for President. It all came down to 44,292 votes in the Keystone State.

For all the hoopla, game-changers, and analysis, sometimes the results are just a simple answer to the question of who showed up.

History turns on frail hinges.

January 1st, 2017 | Posted in Editorial, Features, Front Page Stories, Presidential, Top Stories | 39 Comments

39 thoughts on “Analysis: A Complete Breakdown of PA’s Presidential Results (Maps)”

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  5. hugh says:

    Don’t forget divine intervention for Trump’s win.

    Hillary Clinton was aclear and present danger to religious people. Faithful Catholics were particularly worried after the anti-Catholic subversive plans revealed in the Wikileaks-revealed emails from John Podesta ( Hillary’s campaign manager) to make Catholics stop opposing homosexuality, abortion and other evils by infiltrating the church from within. The word went out for Catholics to pray the rosary daily for the defeat of Hillary Clinton in the last weeks preceding the election. An analogy to the medieval Battle of Lepanto in which Catholic Europe prayed the rosary continuously as their naval forces fought the more powerful Ottoman Muslim forces and against all odds defeated them, was seen in the Trump vs Clinton election. Faithful Catholics were overjoyed by Trump’s win, and thanked the Virgin Mary for her intercession in crushing Hillary and her anti-religious, anti-Catholic plans. If you see the episode at churchmilitant.com on election day, you’ll see the host actually DANCING on top of his news desk!. Trump’s impossible victory was nothing less than a miracle from God to protect religious freedom in America. Deo Gratias.

  6. DelcoDemWoman says:

    If we think this is bad, based on decisions by the elitist class of our party 2018 will be worse – Gov Wolf will lose, Chester County will go Red again, Bucks will get more red and syate legislatures including PA more red. You heard it here first. Then maybe, just maybe, Democrats will get real and get relevant to the struggles of regular hard working, can’t catch a break folk by 2020. Here’s hoping.

  7. Joe Sestack's PA House says:

    As usual, Steven Todd is a self important buffoon who misses the mark again.

  8. Richard says:

    Is that map available anywhere? The, what I assume, breakdown by precincts is awesome.

  9. Mic says:

    Is there any information on the number of people who cast No Vote in PA? I can’t find this info anywhere and find most people don’t even realize it is on the PA ballot.

  10. Canvasser Greg says:

    In addition to the many previous analyses presented here, please consider another impression that I have gathered from my experience that includes door-to-door canvassing in several Presidential elections. Remember for a moment how Al Gore, John Kerry, and Hillary Clinton all had extensive experience and preparation for ascending to the top position, but both Obama and Trump were mostly inexperienced. The former 3 were often subconsciously considered to be familiar names and qualified, but not exciting newcomers with new ideas. Trump and Obama were seen as exciting, passionate new blood and not beltway insiders tied to bureaucratic ways. Hillary may have been the most qualified candidate ever, but she did not display passion for new ideas to bring needed changes.

    It may be sad but true that the mass of voters now are attracted more to the bright shiny object than to a boring resume of competence.

  11. Sklaroff says:

    How stupid can voters be?

  12. New_Liberal_Lion says:

    @Outdoor Cook

    You are analyzing why Clinton lost and how Clinton is terrible for the party (which she is) and at the same time say how wrong it would be for the party to move Left. ??

    So what do you want? A more centrist party? Isn’t that what the problem is? You just railed against Soros and the like while grouping Clinton in there, then turn around and bash Warren and Sanders.

    Did I miss something?

  13. Seneca says:

    Good on Mr. Field for presenting these maps. They show the degree to which the Democratic party has a few islands of blue in a sea of red. And the latter has obliterated traditionally Democrat areas throughout the state. Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Scranton, Harrisburg, some smaller cities, along with a few college towns, are what remains. Elsewhere, the 2016 red tide has prevailed. Mr. Field has described this quite well.

    However, Mr. Field’s subsequent analysis does not focus on the two basic, and obvious, factors that won Trump the election. These are first, the degree of popular resentment and concern by the general population for the future of the country, and the felt need for change driven by this sentiment. Large areas of the state that traditionally voted Democrat were lost to the party this past cycle. And for these voters, the party and its agenda had become an alien, distant entity that no longer related to them.

    Second, celebrity and motivation aside, Trump was the better candidate (more capable and resourceful), and used that advantage to press home his message of being the change candidate that offered the best hope to end the continued deterioration of our economy and social institutions.

    Discontent and disillusionment with the ruling order has been around a lot longer than the Obama regime. However, it increased markedly during the latter, eroding long-standing barriers in many parts of the state that in the past had helped to protect the Democratic party and the status quo it offered. Trump’s candidacy was a catalyst that marshalled widespread discontent and desire for change, and overcame the remaining pockets of Democratic party loyalty in the cities. In the past, the latter could always be counted on by the Democrats, but the numbers failed them this time. Maybe not by much, but a shortfall still measured by 20 electoral votes.

  14. Jake says:

    This was an excellent article and clearly explains the loss of Obama voters to Trump, almost all
    Democrats. When I went to college, Cambria county had more cows than Republicans. The fact that Trump won it so overwhelmingly boggles the mind. Democrats have ignored their blue collar base for far too long and now is an elitist party whose ideas are there for all to see every night on MSNBC. Until the party realizes it can’t win without its traditional voters, it will remain a minority party. Hillary depended on many college educated Republicans to vote for her and many did this time but it won’t be long before they return to the fold. What then?

  15. Henry Miller says:

    Mr Field has rather badly over-analysed the data. The simple truth is that the social propensity of voting Democratic vs Republican correlates extremely well with population density. Why this is true is, of course, another issue.

  16. Steven Scharf says:

    Excellent analysis, but I disagree with one concept you and others have postulated.

    “So just why were there so many voters who switched from Barack Obama to Donald Trump?”

    I don’t think there were many people who went from Obama to Trump. It is more likely that people who did not vote in 2008 and 2012 voted in 2016 and vice versa. They are a different set of people. We know both candidates brought lots of new voters out.

  17. David says:

    When I looked at the PA polls showing HRC up 20% in the Philadelphia suburbs, I didn’t think she could lose the state. And it was hard to believe that she could win Chester County (which Pat Toomey won and Mitt Romney won in 2012) without winning the state. I believe that she lost the election by not challenging Trump’s comments that the coal mines would reopen and there will be a big revival of factory jobs. She should have had Rendell or another surrogate challenge these promises. Or discuss Trump’s history of big promises and mediocre results which people who followed Trump’s casinos or Trump Airlines would have remembered. Why not bring up Trump’s boasts about the Taj Mahal and throw them in his face? Why not bring up Trump’s boasts about his airline and throw them in his face? Just bad strategy by HRC.

  18. Bob N says:

    Clinton lost BC she can NOT be believed … so what she said was inherently unbelievable !

  19. Bob Schmidt says:

    Steve K
    made the most important observation. Nationwide a large percetage of the nation has bad personal experience with the ACA. B Cole is the poster child for the Dems never coming back. People had such a bad experience with ACA they were adamantly opposed to anymore of Obama’s programs… although they liked him personally. Until the B Coles of the Democratic Party realize this, they will be the minority party. BCole needs to listen to Bucksvoter. Dem leadership at both national and many local levels is out of touch with reality.

    Pont and Glotz make good points. Back in Jan 2015 the overwhelming comment was “No more Bush. No more Clinton.” The Dem Party made a grievous error in ignoring us. Clinton’s choice of running mate was compared to Trump’s choice of running. Since Trump’s fame is “You’re fired” and Trump chose competence it was distressing that Clinton chose a clown.

    Bottom line. Clinton was a lousy candidate. She projected the image that she would be an incompetent president, a president who makes choices based on criteria other than making America Great.

  20. Chuckie Porter the rat says:

    We done it. Our crime familia was promised the US. Supreme Court seat that will decide everything going forward and make us billions. We got a Irish guy we took into the family, Tom Hagan, I think his name is, married one of the Zapper girls to improve his bloodline. We already put him on a federal bench so movin on up won’t be hard. We own him and don’t gotta give Trump nothin since we cut the Black vote and won him Pa. This will be way better than takin over the A.G. Office. The Godfather says it wouldn’t have worked anyway since Sonny is a hot head chooch with no nuts or brains.

  21. Ken Yarmosh Sr says:

    I have no idea where Barack Obama was born but scientifically sound forensics by two independent organizations based on separate continents proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that the birth certificate the White House published is fraudulent. I’d like to know why the MSM hasn’t taken seriously the information put forward by Sheriff Arpaio and his team based in Arizona.

  22. OutdoorCook says:

    The Democratic party is shrinking in depth and breadth, and has been for a decade, despite the Obama wins. They abandoned the working class to become the Big Money class, the Wall Street chums they previously decried. How fitting for Elizabeth Warren to screech about Wall Street while Hillary and Bill became a sponge for corporate, foreign and Goldman Sachs money. The Democratic party tore itself in half.

    So all that Soros and Wall Street and oligarch money was spent enriching the pollsters, data analytic firms, consultants and sycophant parrot media, to get 3 million more votes where it didn’t matter.

    So long as Democrats continue with their triggering, safe space, political correctness crusades, blaming Comey, the Russians, racism, sexism, xenophobia and avoid looking inward for some answers, we will continue to see the hollowing out of the Democratic party corpse.

    Nothing would be more pleasing to see than Keith Ellison joining Nancy Pelosi in the Democratic party leadership, to drive the Democrats further left into the wrong direction.

  23. B. Marles says:

    Steve Knight is dead on. The Obamacare premium notices came out in the three weeks before the election, and people were aghast at the increases. To the best of my knowledge, no one has yet polled those who say that they decided in the last month what the major issue for them was. Hillary was saying that Obamacare would stay intact, and I think many said- I can’t afford the ’17 premium; what will I do in ’18 if the program doesn’t change?

  24. nicholas says:

    Trump criticized illegal aliens, not legal immigrants. I am from a family of legal immigrants and I strongly resent being lumped together with illegal aliens, as this writer with his Democrat talking points disingenuously does.

  25. Steve Knight says:

    This is a very interesting and well-researched article, but based on my experience there was one huge issue in Pennsylvania that the author overlooked. I live in a neighboring state but do some business in PA, and over the weeks leading up to the election I had several opportunities to interact with a number of people in PA from all points along the political spectrum. Without question, their 2017 health insurance premium increases were the single biggest issue they all mentioned to me in late October and early November. Demographically, Pennsylvania is one of the oldest states in the U.S. — and therefore has a disproportionate number of people who were hit hardest by these increases. These include semi-retired and/or self-employed people in their late 50s and early 60s who were getting notices for premiums of $2,000 to $3,000 per month for 2017. Without exception, every one of these people — Republicans, Democrats and independents alike — told me they were voting for Donald Trump because the “Affordable Care Act” had been such a disaster for them.

  26. StevenTodd says:

    Excellent analysis maybe the most complete and least biased I’ve read.

    To the issue of why: Democrats have to pick to side with liberals and socialists or their corporate funders.

    Our leadership has chosen the latter, so we need new leadership.

    Nothing more complicated than that. We the rank and file have had it with choosing between GOP and GOP-lite.

  27. Charles Pont says:

    Many voters in the small orange/red section on the Delaware River north of Center City Philadelphia where I am the Republican Committeeman were just tired of the Clintons and were suffering from Clinton fatigue. The choice for them became whether to vote for Trump or stay home. Most of these voters actually showed up to vote for Representative John Taylor R (HD-177) whose vote totals far exceeded Trump’s and broke for Trump at the last minute.

  28. Lindsay says:

    Nice job, Nick, even though I had to stop reading part way through because I was depressed. Both by the fact that this article is necessary and the fact that you weren’t born in 1988… #imold #weredoomed

  29. Harry Glotz says:

    Hillary should have at least picked a progressive for her running mate. The democrat party left us down by hurting Bernie!

  30. Robert Guzzardi says:

    This excellent, detailed, factual analysis is most informative, useful and very well presented. Good work, Nick Field.

  31. Joe says:

    Margaret,
    I just think the writer lacks an intellectual understanding of terms.

  32. Doug Kirschman says:

    I think Hillary Clinton is basket of deplorables comment did as much damage to her campaign as the FBI later. It’s pretty hard to win when you call a large percentage of the population deplorable.

  33. Spanish Fly says:

    18 days until Trump Makes America Great Again!1

  34. Margaret Leber says:

    I’d say conflating nationalism with racism as the writer seems to is a pretty clear example of “viewing the election through a racial lens”.

  35. b.cole says:

    people need to stop saying clinton did not have a message, to lose by such a narrow margin in the swing states means she did reach many people.Where was the democratic party? who was out explaining to people how congress blocked Obama’s jobs bill and every bill he presented to them that would have benefit their lives.People lied to the pollsters because trump represented everything we had told our children that was not acceptable,but voted for him anyway.If the race was all about jobs then explain the rise in hate crimes.Clinton’s mistake was believing americans had strong moral values,education was important and that they would never accept a man that went against everything that made us decent. Where were the democrats that had voices in the states she lost during the election?

  36. BucksVoter says:

    Leadership changes are needed in the Bucks County Democratic Party. Chair John Cordisco likes to brag about the Dem registration edge, but it means nothing when you have a substantial number of Dem-in-name-only voters in Lower Bucks.

  37. BUCKS BARRISTER says:

    NICE JOB NICK FIELD

  38. gulag Pittsburgh says:

    Trump is an ignorant ass.

Comments are closed.