Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a several point advantage over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania according to this latest poll.
A new Fox News poll of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, while 1% said they support Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen, 1% said other, and 2% said they didn’t know. Biden’s lead over Trump is identical with registered voters in the state as 50% support Biden, while 45% support Trump.
According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Fox News polling, conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), favors Democrats by an average of 1.4% and has an overall A- grade.
The race has tightened a bit in comparison to the previous Fox News poll released in late-September. In that poll, Biden led Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state and held an 8 point advantage, 51%-to-43%, among registered voters in the state.
Biden has the advantage on favorability rating, while Trump is under water in that category and job approval rating.
54% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Biden, while 45% have an unfavorable view of him. 46% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 54% have an unfavorable view of him.
48% approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52% disapprove.
Likely voters trust Biden over Trump to handle the coronavirus (51-to-40), while Trump has the edge over Biden on the economy (50-to-45).
Polling released in October has consistently shown Biden leading in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster. This latest poll shows Biden’s lead in the state is consistent with the current Real Clear Politics average.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. An Emerson College pollof likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. A Morning Consult poll of likely voters in the state shows Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 52-to-44. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling released on Friday. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 49-to-45, among likely voters in the state. A Trafalgar Grouppoll showed Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.4%-to-45.1%, among likely voters in the state. A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state. A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 21, showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 51%-to-43%. A CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters also released on Oct. 21 showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 53%-to-43%.
Biden’s largest lead in October public polling comes from a Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 7 that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. Biden’s slimmest lead among recent public polling was from CNBC/Change Research that shows Biden leading by just 2 points, 49%-to-47%, among likely voters in the state.
Two GOP friendly polls released since last week showed Biden leading in the state as well, but by a smaller margin.
An Insider Advantage phone poll of likely voters commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, in the state shows Biden leading Trump by just over 3 points, 45.8%-to-42.6%. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4.9 points in Pennsylvania.
This poll surveyed 1,106 registered voters, including 1,045 likely voters, collected data between Oct. 17-20. The margin of error for registered voters polled and likely voters polled is +/-3%.
The full data can be found here.
Trump will have a complete meltdown when he loses.