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Morning Consult Poll: Biden 52, Trump 43

Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a several point lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this new poll. 

The latest Morning Consult poll of likely voters released on Thursday morning shows Biden leading Trump by 9 points, 52%-to-43%, among likely voters in the state. Biden leads in 7 of the 12 battleground states polled. The only states where the former VP holds a larger lead than his lead in the Keystone State is in Colorado and Wisconsin. 

Biden has extended his lead by 1 point in the state in comparison to their polling released on Oct. 13. That previous Morning Consult poll showed Biden with an 8 point lead, 52%-to-44%, among likely voters in Pennsylvania.  

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Morning Consult favors Democrats by an average of 0.2% and has an overall B/C grade. 

Polling released in October has consistently shown Biden leading in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster. This latest poll shows Biden’s lead is a few point larger in the state than the current Real Clear Politics average

A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling released on Friday. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 49-to-45, among likely voters in the state. A Trafalgar Grouppoll showed Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.4%-to-45.1%, among likely voters in the state. A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state. A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 21, showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 51%-to-43%. A CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters also released on Oct. 21 showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 53%-to-43%. A Fox News poll of likely voters in the state released on Wednesday evening showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%.

Biden’s largest lead in October public polling comes from a Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 7 that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. Biden’s slimmest lead among recent public polling was from CNBC/Change Research that shows Biden leading by just 2 points, 49%-to-47%, among likely voters in the state. 

Two GOP friendly polls released since last week showed Biden leading in the state as well, but by a smaller margin. 

An Insider Advantage phone poll of likely voters commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, in the state shows Biden leading Trump by just over 3 points, 45.8%-to-42.6%. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state. 

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4.9 points in Pennsylvania. 

This overall poll, surveying 2,563 likely Pennsylvania voters, collected data between Oct. 11-20, has a margin of error of +/-1.9%. 

The battleground polling can be found here.

October 22nd, 2020 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Presidential, Top Stories | 6 Comments

6 thoughts on “Morning Consult Poll: Biden 52, Trump 43”

  1. Republican Freeloader says:

    I hope you are right. I saved almost 50k because of Trumps tax cuts. My average employee saved $116. To think they complain about our President. I inherited a nice business from my father. It’s the American dream!!!

  2. gulag Pittsburgh says:

    Trump is an ignorant, stupid, lazy, traitorous, bully criminal.

  3. David Diano says:

    Here’s what NONE of the pollsters or analysts have pointed out or may be aware of (I just found out myself last night).

    Of the voters who were registered in 2016 (and still registered now) who sat out the 2016 election….
    .. 454,703 have requested mail-in ballots for 2020.

    About 276,000 of them are DEMS !!
    Only about 109,000 are Republicans (and likely never-Trumpers)
    and nearly 70,000 Independent/3rd party who finally woke up that there is a choice to make

    When you look at Trump’s narrow (fluke) win in 2016, and now 10 times as many people as his margin have decided to make their voices heard.. Trump is royaly f*cked !

    1. Indy says:

      What about all the republicans voting in person on election day.will that be enough votes to carry trump.

      1. David Diano says:

        NOPE. Will not be enough.

        1) A lot of Republicans are are sick and tired of Trump and voting for Biden. Covid has proven that Trump can’t do the job.

        2) The never Trumpers who sat out, are coming out. They couldn’t get past 25 years of right-wing attacks and smears against Hillary, but they can vote for Biden.

        3) Tom Ridge and the former RNC Chairman endorsed Biden (along with lots of top former military). Plenty of Republicans share their view.

        Trump won PA by 44,000 because the Dems were complacent, and a lot of Obama voters sat out for Hillary. Of the 275,000 Dems who are re-engaging.. 70,000 were voters for Obama’s election.

        Trump isn’t gaining voters. He just keeps shrinking his base to the bare minimum. The people who regret sitting out 4 years ago are out in DROVES this year.

        Trump is going to lose… then he’s going to jail.

    2. Steve says:

      What a pathetic delusion! Biden will never be president.

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