Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll: Biden 51, Trump 44
Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a several point advantage over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll.
A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, while 4% said they were not sure, and 2% said neither candidate. The results remained unchanged when “leaners” were taken into consideration.
According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Muhlenberg College favors Republicans by an average of 0.2% and has an overall A+ grade.
This latest poll shows a minor improvement for Biden in comparison to the previous Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll conducted in mid-August. In that poll, Biden led Trump by 4 points, 48%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state.
Just over half of likely voters, 51%, said that Trump does not deserve reelection, while 44% said that he deserves a second term, and 5% are not sure. This is a slight improvement for Trump in comparison to their August poll that showed 53% of likely voters saying that he didn’t deserve a second term.
Trump’s job approval and favorability ratings are under water in this latest poll as well. 43% approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency, while 51% disapprove, and 7% are not sure. 40% said that they have a favorable impression of Trump, while 52% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 8% are not sure.
These numbers for Trump remain relatively unchanged from August polling.
Likely voters in the state are torn on how they view Biden. 42% have a favorable impression of Biden, while 42% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 16% are not sure.
The latest favorability ratings are an improvement for Biden in comparison to the August polling that showed 46% having an unfavorable view of him, while 39% had a favorable view.
The economy remains as the most important issue in deciding likely voters’ presidential vote in the state. 27% said that the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote in the upcoming presidential election, while 20% selected the coronavirus pandemic, followed by 18% saying health care, and 12% saying law and order. None of the other options surpassed double digits.
Democrats have the edge over Republicans in regards to likely voters selection in their congressional district. 47% said that if the election were held today that they’d vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, while 41% said that they’d vote for the Republican candidate, and 11% said they aren’t sure.
Polling released in October has consistently shown Biden leading in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster. This latest poll is close with the current Real Clear Politics average.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling released on Friday. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 49-to-45, among likely voters in the state. A Trafalgar Grouppoll showed Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.4%-to-45.1%, among likely voters in the state. A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state. A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 21, showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 51%-to-43%. A CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters also released on Oct. 21 showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 53%-to-43%. A Fox News poll of likely voters in the state released on Wednesday evening showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%. A Morning Consult poll of likely voters in the state released on Thursday showed Biden leading Trump by 9 points, 52%-to-43%.
Biden’s largest lead in October public polling comes from a Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 7 that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. Biden’s slimmest lead among recent public polling was from CNBC/Change Research that shows Biden leading by just 2 points, 49%-to-47%, among likely voters in the state.
Two GOP friendly polls and one Democratic PAC backed poll released this month also showed Biden leading in the state as well, although the margin varied by the pollster.
An Insider Advantage phone poll of likely voters commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, in the state shows Biden leading Trump by just over 3 points, 45.8%-to-42.6%. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state. A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by American Bridge, a Democratic super PAC, showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, in the state.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 5.1 points in Pennsylvania.
This poll, surveying 416 likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between October 13-20, has a margin of error of +/- 5.5%.
The full survey can be found here.