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Trafalgar Poll: Trump 48.4, Biden 47.6

President Donald Trump leads former Vice President Joe Biden by less than 1 point in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll. 

The Trafalgar Group’s survey of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Trump slightly ahead of Biden, 48.4%-to-47.6%, when voters are asked who they are voting for or leaning towards supporting for president. When “leaners” were not taken into consideration, 46.7% back Trump, while 45.8% support Biden. 

Trump’s lead is within the poll’s 2.91% margin of error. 

The Trafalgar Group was one of the few pollsters that correctly predicted Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania in 2016 over Sec. Hillary Clinton. According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Trafalgar Group polling favors Republicans by an average of 0.9% and has an overall C- grade. 

The Hill has previously reported that the group “weights its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or the “so-called shy Trump voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they support the president.”

Their latest poll is the first time in recent months that they have shown Trump leading the race. Their last poll released in mid-October showed Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.4%-to-45.1%, in the state. 

While Trump is ahead in this poll, a significant majority of public polling released in October has consistently shown Biden leading in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster.

A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling released on Friday. A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state. A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 21, showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 51%-to-43%. A CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters also released on Oct. 21 showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 53%-to-43%. A Fox News poll of likely voters in the state released on Wednesday evening showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%. A Morning Consult poll of likely voters in the state released on Thursday showed Biden leading Trump by 9 points, 52%-to-43%. A Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of likely voters released on Friday morning showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. A Gravis marketing poll of likely voters in the state released on Saturday showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. Polling also released on Monday from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 52%-to-44%. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. 

Biden’s largest lead in October public polling comes from a Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 7 that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. Biden’s slimmest lead among recent public polling prior to this was from CNBC/Change Research that shows Biden leading by just 2 points, 49%-to-47%, among likely voters in the state. 

Only one other poll from a conservative website showed Trump in the lead, while another GOP friendly poll and one Democratic backed poll released this month showed Biden with an advantage in the state, although the margin varied by the pollster. 

An Insider Advantage phone poll commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, of likely voters in the state released this week shows Trump leading Biden by just under 3 points, 48.4%-to-45.5%. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state. A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by American Bridge, a Democratic super PAC, showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, in the state. 

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 3.8 points in Pennsylvania. 

This overall poll, surveying 1,076 likely Pennsylvania voters, collected data between Oct. 24-25, has a margin of error of +/-2.91%. 

The full data can be found here.

33 Responses

  1. Did France/Germany/UK fix it with their masks? Nope. Only got worse. Know who did? The country that did not require masks, Sweden.

    1. Yup. Not to mention the same polls had Hillary up on average by 5+ points in 2016… This is comical. Biden has done literally nothing and they expect us to believe he’s this far ahead in the polls…

  2. I voted for Trump live here in West Virginia and he is winning by landslide i think you guys polls is more reality!! We want here truth the difference is a biden depression and a Trump economy booming! Trump didnt cause covid China did.. thanks for you guys honesty in these polls

    1. Just because Trump didn’t CAUSE Covid doesn’t mean he is not responsible for fixing it. What kind of logic is that? Is the economy booming for you in West Virginia?

      1. So Governors and other Elected Officials play no part in it? Only President Trump? Does that mean, based on your response, the Democratic Party is responsible for making the pandemic worse?

        If it weren’t for Trump there would be hundreds of thousands more dead! For you to say it’s President Trump’s responsibility alone to fix while ignoring the behavior, actions, and resistance of the Democrats and Socialist Psychos is just foolishness.

      2. He HAS been fixing things since the beginning…What part of the largest Medical Mobilization ever seen with ANY Pandemic ever achieved do you not understand? He built hospitals from the ground floor up, gutted naval ships and got them covid-19 ready for loud mouth Cuomo who killed 11K people by sticking Covid positive patients in nursing homes…..He cut out bureaucratic red tape and regulations to help therapeutics and vaccines get approved and out to us much faster…If it would have been under Obama and bumbling Biden, it would have been years before a vaccine or any therapy would be available….He had the largest jump in GDP today with a 33% increase ! That is a US record, never been done before…ever…Over 17 Million jobs created in 3 1/2 years versus 8 full years under Obama/Biden 12 million jobs….And you’re willing to toss that all to the curb besides you don’t like the way he tweets ? My God, wake the hell up…

      1. And what advantage would it be for you if Trump wins? I would encourage you to google some facts on Trumps policies. Thrilled for you that you know no one with pre existing conditions, or need social security, or Medicare, but if your 401k is cool, I am guessing you are all set for the future. We could use a President who supports white supremacy and as long as they are Hispanic children just lock them up, or non supporters of Trump. I know you and see you in my neighborhood.

        1. Hey Finale Norton. I highly encourage you to research Biden’s involvement in Ukraine and China dealings where it has been clearly evident that he uses his position for financial gain. Additionally, you should look into where in Trump’s healthcare agenda it states that they will not cover those with pre-existing conditions. Trump has voiced the inaccuracy of this claim. And if that’s not enough, look into the many times he has denounced white supremacists and white supremacy. Didn’t you see what Biden said that if you aren’t for him, “then you ain’t black”? That’s a red flag for racism in my book! To buy into ideologies that are products of mainstream media without your own research is not very responsible for you, dear citizen. It is unintelligent and irresponsible buy into unfounded facts and politics. P.S. look into how many children Biden and Obama locked up. In cages.

          1. Maybe Finale Norton hasn’t discovered Google yet, or he/she/it/whatever is just allergic to facts. I don’t know.

  3. The major main stream media/news polls get it all wrong, potentially on purpose, but possibly by simply being lazy and stupid, by mostly polling the urban centers or higher population areas, and when they do poll republicans there, they’re clearly never trump types who will give you a pro-Dem answer. Not to mention, it’s proven that Trump supporters are at least 5:1, up to 10:1 as likely to not answer a poll, or if they do, they will answer dishonestly. PA is very close, make no mistake, I figure 1-2 points either way.

    1. I agree with you totally but a pollster is a pollster why would a person need to lie? Are they not proud of all the the things Trump does and says. I am surprised someone on this thread said Biden was a liar. We can all listen to President Trump lie to our faces. Trump terrifies me and I am so surprised this election would be close. It boggles the mind that we have a President who says he can shoot someone and still would not lose any of his supporters it’s true because he is responsible for thousands of deaths and his supporters are still there. What the hell have we become?

      1. Biden lied about his standing in college and in law school. He lied during the recent debate that he never said he would ban fracking. Apparently he doesn’t know about video tape which clearly shows three times when he guaranteed he would ban fracking. The worst lie of all is the lie that he never talked to Hunter about his business. Of course it could be he just can’t remember given his cognitive loss.

      2. People lie to pollsters for lots of reasons. Largely because they know most of these msm polls are dishonest and don’t know how to cut through that. If Trump is responsible for all these COVID deaths, how many more would you say Biden is responsible for for opposing the travel bans if he were in office. Not to mention, he and Obama did absolutely nothing for H1N1 (N1H1 to Joe) and plenty of kids actually died from that. His own representative said they got lucky that H1N1 wasn’t as dangerous for seniors and ppl w/co-morbids (which most Covid deaths are from, anyway, like 95%). So make sure you assess this honestly.

    1. Exactly P.C. Turnout is what’s up. Enthusiasm can matter, because higher enthusiasm translates to higher likelihood of the voter actually coming out on Election Day or voting early for that matter, but especially matters on Election Day.

  4. The Trafalgar poll was right on in every state in 2016 when all of the other polls except for Rasmussen were calling for a Hillary landslide.Fake news would have you believe this will be a Biden landslide when this election will be really tight no matter who wins.

    1. Cause there crazy and don’t want be fair with trump!! WE CANT SAY WHO WE WANT VOTE FOR CAUSE IDOTS WILL BUST YA WINDOWS OUT. I SAY TRUMP WINS Pennsylvania

      1. Bust your windows out? Have you listened to any of Trumps rallies? They are the ones who will bust your windows out. Yelling and ranting to lock people up…seriously scary folks. But I am guessing that they got big tax cuts, and good healthcare and no pre existing conditions, and no need for their older kids to be on their insurance, and just because Trump didn’t cause Covid…no need for him to fix it, and wearing a mask is really An infringement On your rights….oh yeah and you make 400,000 dollars so you will get your taxes raised. I am sure you benefited from the Trump tax cuts. Do your own research….please. If not you are one getting shot on 5th Avenue and Trump keeps your support.

        1. I haven’t seen any of the burn, loot, and murder thugs wearing MAGA hats have you? Everyone who gets up and goes to work was eligible for the tax cuts. Do you work? Do you pay any taxes? If so, then you also benefited from the tax cuts. Did you get a stimulus check? If so, did you cash that check that the evil orange man sent you? Of course you did. Health insurance is horrid. Until this abomination of Obamacare was forced down our throats I did have good health insurance. Now I get the privilege of paying $600 a month in order to pay the first 4K of bills. Obamacare sucks and was the equivalent of a massive middle class tax hike. If your racist boy Biden gets elected, I’m sure it will bring you joy, as the middle class is sucked down to your miserable level.

  5. Has the PA House GOP Leadership done anything about serial philanderer and child abuser GOP State Rep Aaron Bernstine?

    In one video obtained by the USA TODAY Network, Aaron Bernstine, R-10, New Beaver, Lawrence County, is behind the camera, but his hand is shown holding a cigar and offering it to his son.

    When the young boy takes a puff, Bernstine tells him to “hit it harder” and “breathe in,” followed by a woman’s voice saying, “No.”

    A second video has Bernstine again off camera asking his son, “What are we going to chase in Nashville?” The boy replies in a whisper, “Cadillac p—ssy,” using a vulgar term for vagina.

  6. Bullshit poll that self-corrects for a non-existent bias, so GOP looks good. Win in 2016 in PA was a fluke. Trump is a PoS human being and moron who has no scruples, morals or honesty.

  7. Yeah! Finally a poll that knows how to do ask the right people who they are voting for. Rural areas will dominate in PA for Trump. Keep your poll out of those corrupt urban areas. Those votes shouldn’t even count!!

  8. There is no way this poll is accurate. This is a “homer poll” ie one of those polls designed to tell those paying for it what they’d like to hear. I’m not saying it is all bad because sometimes polls may estimates that can pan out but commonsense says this poll is not accurate.

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