Trafalgar Poll: Trump 48.4, Biden 47.6
President Donald Trump leads former Vice President Joe Biden by less than 1 point in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll.
The Trafalgar Group’s survey of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Trump slightly ahead of Biden, 48.4%-to-47.6%, when voters are asked who they are voting for or leaning towards supporting for president. When “leaners” were not taken into consideration, 46.7% back Trump, while 45.8% support Biden.
Trump’s lead is within the poll’s 2.91% margin of error.
The Trafalgar Group was one of the few pollsters that correctly predicted Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania in 2016 over Sec. Hillary Clinton. According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Trafalgar Group polling favors Republicans by an average of 0.9% and has an overall C- grade.
The Hill has previously reported that the group “weights its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or the “so-called shy Trump voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they support the president.”
Their latest poll is the first time in recent months that they have shown Trump leading the race. Their last poll released in mid-October showed Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.4%-to-45.1%, in the state.
While Trump is ahead in this poll, a significant majority of public polling released in October has consistently shown Biden leading in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling released on Friday. A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state. A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 21, showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 51%-to-43%. A CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters also released on Oct. 21 showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 53%-to-43%. A Fox News poll of likely voters in the state released on Wednesday evening showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%. A Morning Consult poll of likely voters in the state released on Thursday showed Biden leading Trump by 9 points, 52%-to-43%. A Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of likely voters released on Friday morning showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. A Gravis marketing poll of likely voters in the state released on Saturday showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. Polling also released on Monday from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 52%-to-44%. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state.
Biden’s largest lead in October public polling comes from a Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 7 that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. Biden’s slimmest lead among recent public polling prior to this was from CNBC/Change Research that shows Biden leading by just 2 points, 49%-to-47%, among likely voters in the state.
Only one other poll from a conservative website showed Trump in the lead, while another GOP friendly poll and one Democratic backed poll released this month showed Biden with an advantage in the state, although the margin varied by the pollster.
An Insider Advantage phone poll commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, of likely voters in the state released this week shows Trump leading Biden by just under 3 points, 48.4%-to-45.5%. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state. A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by American Bridge, a Democratic super PAC, showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, in the state.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 3.8 points in Pennsylvania.
This overall poll, surveying 1,076 likely Pennsylvania voters, collected data between Oct. 24-25, has a margin of error of +/-2.91%.
The full data can be found here.