Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll: Biden 49, Trump 44

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania has narrowed a bit, according to this latest poll. 

A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-to-45%, while 4% said they were not sure, and 2% said neither candidate when those leaning towards a candidate were included. Without “leaners” Biden holds a 6 point lead over Trump, 49%-to-43%, while while 4% said they were not sure, and 4% said neither candidate. 

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Muhlenberg College favors Republicans by an average of 0.2% and has an overall A+ grade. 

These results indicate a slight improvement for Trump in comparison to the previous Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll conducted in mid-October. In that previous poll, Biden led Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state when those leaning towards a candidate were included.  

54% said that Trump does not deserve reelection, while 42% said that he deserves a second term, and 4% are not sure. 

Trump’s job approval and favorability ratings are under water in this latest poll as well. 45% approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency, while 49% disapprove, and 6% are not sure. 41% said that they have a favorable impression of Trump, while 52% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 7% are not sure. 

These numbers remain relatively unchanged from their previous poll. 

A plurality of likely voters have an unfavorable view of Biden. 38% have a favorable impression of Biden, while 45% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 17% are not sure. 

The latest favorability ratings for Biden are down a few points in comparison to the mid-October polling that showed voters split 42%-to-42% on his favorability rating. 

The economy remains as the most important issue in deciding likely voters’ presidential vote in the state. 27% said that the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote in the upcoming presidential election, while 22% said health care, followed by 20% who selected the coronavirus pandemic. None of the other options surpassed double digits. 

Democrats have the edge over Republicans in regards to likely voters selection in their congressional district. 46% said that if the election were held today that they’d vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, while 42% said that they’d vote for the Republican candidate, and 11% said they aren’t sure.

This poll, surveying 419 likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between October 23-28, has a margin of error of +/- 5.5%. 

The full survey can be found here.

A majority of polling conducted in October has consistently shown Biden leading Trump in the state. 

Biden’s lead in this poll is just 1 point larger than the current Real Clear Politics average.

A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling. A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state. A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 21, showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 51%-to-43%. A CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters also released on Oct. 21 showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 53%-to-43%. A Fox News poll of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%. A CNBC/Change Research poll shows Biden leading by just 2 points, 49%-to-47%, among likely voters in the state. A Morning Consult poll of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 9 points, 52%-to-43%. A Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of likely voters released on Oct. 23 showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. A Gravis marketing poll of likely voters in the state released on Saturday showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. Polling also released on Monday from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 52%-to-44%. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A Civiqs/DailyKos poll of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 52%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A Franklin & Marshall College poll released on Oct. 28 showed Biden carrying a 6 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state. A third Quinnipiac University poll released this month on Oct. 28 showed Biden leading Trump among likely voters in the state by 7 points, 51%-to-44%. Biden holds a 5 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-45%, among registered voters in the state, according to a Univision/University of Houston poll. A PoliticalIQ poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen showed Biden leading Trump by 6 points, 51%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A second The Hill/Harris polling released in late-October showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, among likely voters in the state. 

Biden’s largest lead in October public polling comes from the Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 7 that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. However, a Trafalgar Group poll released on Tuesday showed Trump leading Biden by less than 1 point, 48.4%-to-47.6%, among likely voters in the state. 

One other poll from a conservative website showed Trump in the lead, while another GOP friendly poll and one Democratic backed poll released this month showed Biden with an advantage in the state, although the margin varied by the pollster. 

An Insider Advantage phone poll commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, of likely voters in the state released this week shows Trump leading Biden by just under 3 points, 48.4%-to-45.5%. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state. A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by American Bridge, a Democratic super PAC, showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, in the state. 

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4 points in Pennsylvania.

November 1st, 2020 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Presidential, Top Stories | No Comments

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